IBM CEO Arvind Krishna believes global trade remains vital for U.S. economic growth, despite the Trump administration’s anti-globalism stance. Speaking at SXSW, he cited historical economic studies showing that a 10% increase in global trade leads to a 1% rise in local GDP. Krishna stressed the importance of attracting international talent, arguing that the U.S. should be a hub for global expertise rather than restricting student and H-1B work visas.
During the discussion, Krishna also addressed AI’s impact on programming. He disagreed with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s prediction that AI will write 90% of code within six months. Instead, Krishna estimates AI will generate about 20-30%, improving efficiency rather than replacing programmers. He compared AI’s role to past innovations like calculators and Photoshop—enhancing human capabilities rather than eliminating jobs. AI, he argued, will allow programmers to produce more code, driving business growth and market expansion.
Krishna acknowledged challenges surrounding AI, including intellectual property concerns and energy consumption. However, he believes AI models will become significantly more efficient, using less than 1% of today’s energy due to emerging technologies like those from Chinese AI startup DeepSeek.
Despite AI’s advancements, Krishna is skeptical about its ability to create new knowledge. He sees quantum computing as the true game-changer for scientific breakthroughs, contrasting his stance with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s belief in the imminent arrival of superintelligent AI.
Ultimately, Krishna views AI as a powerful tool that enhances productivity but does not replace human ingenuity. He remains optimistic about AI’s role in improving technology and business while emphasizing the continued importance of global collaboration and innovation.
